Let’s Talk October Stats

October 2022 Stats

October Market stats are here so let’s dig in and see what is actually going on in the Real Estate Market.

While the price IS down from October of last year, prices are actually slightly up month over month in the GTA. We seem to have hit a threshold in how much prices will drop because people have simply decided not to sell right now if they don’t want to or don’t have to. In fact, new listings in October hit their lowest amount ever since 2010. This persistent lack of inventory helps explain why the downward trend in home prices experienced in the spring has flattened over the past three months which you can see right here on this chart.

This is in very stark contrast to what is in the news today. Take for example this article by the Toronto Star predicting that the real estate market will crash by 30% come March of 2023. If you read that headline alone, I can see how things look very dire. It’s not until you’re further down the article that this plunge of 30% they speak of, starts from that peak of prices in February of this past year. Back to the chart above – you’ll see that we’ve already adjusted by over 20% .

So for my buyers out there, while there is definitely more room for prices to go down, I always urge you to look at the numbers in the neighbourhood you want to live in, because that may not always be the story. I have clients looking for condos in the C01 district and for detached homes in Burlington. In both those markets, prices went up last month.

I’m not trying to force anyone to buy anything – I just want you to know what is actually going on in the market. Because right now it is a much more enjoyable experience to be a buyer than it was in Spring because you can take your time visiting and revisiting a listing and make offers with conditions.

Lastly, there are two factors I believe are protecting the GTA from a steeper market correction than other places in the world – that is our lack of supply teamed with our growing population. In fact the Canadian government recently announced that they will be increasing their immigration targets to 500,000 a year by 2025. Which is way more that the 405,000 immigrants we welcomed this year – which was already the most ever in one year.

And I know there will be people who say, “Why can’t they move to more rural parts of Ontario?” Because over half of the immigrants are actual skilled workers coming here to join the labour force. And where are the majority of jobs where skilled workers are needed most? Right here in our wonderful GTA.